Conservative growth and a higher discount rate — the cautious case (25% weight).
Free intrinsic value calculator
What is this stock actually worth?
Market Lens estimates a stock’s intrinsic value by averaging the Graham Number with a growth-adjusted fair-P/E value, shows a separate bear/base/bull discounted-cash-flow range beside it, and puts both next to today’s price. Free, no sign-up. It’s an estimate for your own research, not a price prediction.
A range, not false precision.
The expected case from current fundamentals (50% weight).
Optimistic growth — the upside if things go well (25% weight).
These are the DCF panel’s scenarios: each discounts projected cash flows back to today and adds a Gordon-growth terminal value. Hold that range up against the market price — and against the headline intrinsic estimate — to apply the margin-of-safety idea.
What goes into the estimate.
No single model is the whole answer. Here is exactly what feeds the headline estimate, and what is shown beside it.
Graham Number
Benjamin Graham’s ceiling — √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share), the most a defensive investor should pay. Used for asset-heavy businesses; skipped for Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare, and Consumer Cyclical, and whenever EPS or book value is zero or negative.
Growth-adjusted fair P/E
Earnings per share × a fair P/E roughly equal to the expected growth rate (the “PEG ≈ 1” rule), capped between 8× and 20×. The headline intrinsic value is the average of this and the Graham Number — or this value alone in the four excluded sectors.
Margin of safety
(Intrinsic estimate − price) ÷ intrinsic estimate. This is the number that feeds the margin-of-safety pillar of the Buffett-style score.
Separate DCF panel
A 10-year discounted-cash-flow model with fixed bear/base/bull scenarios and a Gordon-growth terminal value, shown next to the estimate as a cash-flow-based second opinion. It is not averaged into the intrinsic value above.
How to read the result
- 01
Look at the range, not one number. The gap between the DCF’s bear and bull cases tells you how much the estimate depends on assumptions — a wide gap means more uncertainty.
- 02
Compare it to the price. If the estimated value sits well above today’s price, that’s a margin of safety worth researching; if it sits below, the stock may be priced for a lot to go right.
- 03
Treat it as a starting point. An intrinsic-value estimate is a tool for your own analysis — not a forecast of the price and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
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Frequently asked questions
What is intrinsic value?+
Intrinsic value is an estimate of what a business is genuinely worth, based on the cash it can generate over time — as opposed to whatever price the market happens to be quoting today. Comparing the two is the heart of value investing.
How does the calculator estimate intrinsic value?+
It averages two classic estimates: the Graham Number and a growth-adjusted fair-P/E value (EPS × a fair P/E near the growth rate, capped 8–20×). For Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare, and Consumer Cyclical it uses the fair-P/E value alone. A separate bear/base/bull DCF is shown alongside as a second opinion but is not part of that number.
What are the bear, base, and bull scenarios?+
They are the three cases in the separate DCF panel — conservative, expected, and optimistic growth and discount-rate assumptions, fixed by the model and weighted 25% / 50% / 25%. Showing all three gives you a range instead of a single overconfident figure.
Is an intrinsic-value estimate a prediction of the price?+
No. It is an estimate of value under a set of assumptions, not a forecast of where the price will go and not a recommendation to trade. Change the assumptions and the number changes. Market Lens is educational research; the decision is always yours.
Is the intrinsic value calculator free?+
Yes — it is part of the free analysis, with no account required.